National targets require schools to ensure that a specified percentage of pupils make at least expected progress in English and, separately, in maths between the end of KS2 and the end of KS4. The measure of expected progress is built on the principle that pupils achieving a level 4 in English or in maths by the end of KS2 should be expected to achieve at least a C grade GCSE in that subject.

The chart below shows how numerical and alphabetically coded levels at KS2 are mapped to GCSE grades in English or maths to determine whether a pupil can be included in the progress measure and, if included in the measure, whether or not they have made at least expected progress. The measure of expected progress is built on the principle that pupils achieving a level 4 in English or in maths by the end of KS2 should be expected to achieve at least a C grade GCSE in that subject.

GCSE grade
no KS4 result U G F E D C B A A*
KS2 test level Other level or no prior available Expected progress not made Expected progress not made Not included Not included Not included Not included Not included Expected progress made Expected progress made Expected progress made
B,N Expected progress not made Expected progress not made Not included Not included Expected Progress made Expected progress made Expected progress made Expected progress made Expected progress made Expected progress made
2 Expected progress not made Expected progress not made Expected progress not made Expected progress not made Expected Progress made Expected progress made Expected progress made Expected progress made Expected progress made Expected progress made
3 Expected progress not made Expected progress not made Expected progress not made Expected progress not made Expected Progress not made Expected progress made Expected progress made Expected progress made Expected progress made Expected progress made
4 Expected progress not made Expected progress not made Expected progress not made Expected progress not made Expected Progress not made Expected progress not made Expected progress made Expected progress made Expected progress made Expected progress made
5 Expected progress not made Expected progress not made Expected progress not made Expected progress not made Expected Progress not made Expected progress not made Expected progress not made Expected progress made Expected progress made Expected progress made
  • Pupils who have not been entered for GCSEs or are ungraded will be deemed as not having made expected progress, regardless of their starting point.
  • Pupils attaining level 5 at KS2 are expected to attain at least a grade B GCSE. Given that level 5 is the highest National Curriculum level at which a pupil can be assessed, all pupils attaining grades A*-B will be deemed to have made the expected progress – whether or not their prior attainment is known.
  • Pupils attaining level 2 at KS2 are expected to attain a grade E GCSE. Therefore, pupils known to be assessed at level 2 or below at KS2 – namely those with a ‘B’ (working below the level assessed by the tests) or ‘N’ (no test level awarded) will be deemed to have made expected progress if they attain a grade A*-E at GCSE.