National pupil projections: future trends in pupil numbers

Statistics: Reference ID: OSR02/2012; Publication type: Statistical Release; Publication data: Prerelease access data, Underlying Statistical data; Region: England; Release date: 24 January 2012; Coverage status: Final; Publication status: Published

This statistical release provides national projections for the number of pupils in schools by type of school and age group. Findings presented here update those published in July 2011 (OSR 12/2011) using the latest mid 2010-based national population projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which were released in October 2011. This release is the first time that the impact of the mid 2010-based projections on future pupil numbers has been presented.

This is an Official Statistics publication. The statistics are presented as the latest available findings and have been released to help planning, to study trends and to inform a variety of programmes and initiatives.

This release presents the Department's main national-level pupil projections. A statistical release on school capacity was published on 9 January 2012 (OSR01/2012) and included local authorities' own forecasts of future pupil numbers, based on local level information, such as inter-authority migration of pupils.

The national pupil projections presented in the current release are produced within the Department, at national level only. They are based on the latest national population projections from ONS and cover a longer time period (up to 2020) than the school capacity release (OSR01/2012). Differences in the methodologies used by individual local authorities for pupil number forecasts mean that the aggregated totals in the school capacity release will differ from the national level projections presented here, although the trends are broadly similar.

Overall pupil numbers (aged up to and including 15) in state-funded schools began to increase in 2011 and are projected to continue rising.
Numbers in maintained nursery and state-funded primary schools started increasing in 2010 and are expected to continue rising. By 2020, numbers are projected to be 20 per cent higher than in 2011, reaching levels last seen in the early 1970s.
By 2015, pupil numbers in maintained nursery and state-funded primary schools are projected to increase by 10 per cent. The number of pupils aged 5 to 6 will increase by 10 per cent. For pupils aged 7 to 10, a nine per cent increase is projected over the same period.
State-funded secondary school rolls of pupils aged under 16 have been in decline since 2004 and are expected to decline further until around 2016, when the increases in primary pupil numbers will start to flow through.
By 2015, state-funded secondary pupil numbers aged under 16 are expected to be five per cent lower than in 2011.
State-funded secondary pupil numbers aged 16 and over have risen every year since the mid 1990s. By 2013 (the latest year for which data is available) they are projected to be around 8000 higher than in 2011.
These projections are based on the Office for National Statistics' principal assumptions about levels of fertility, mortality and migration and their impact on the school-aged population.

This release provides national projections for the number of pupils in schools by type of school and age group.

Findings presented in this release update the previous set of results (published in OSR 12/2011), using the latest national population projections (mid 2010-based projections) from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), for the first time, with updated assumptions about future levels of fertility, migration and mortality. Included in this report is an updated impact assessment of varying these migration assumptions on projected pupil numbers, over a longer time range than in previous releases.

This is an Official Statistics publication. The statistics are presented as latest available findings and have been released to help planning, to study trends and to inform a variety of programmes and initiatives.