Pupil projection guide 2006:
Illustrations by type of school

This section presents a summary of issues specific to each type of school and suggests good practice in ways of addressing them.

School types

• infant schools
• junior schools
• primary schools
• first schools
• middle schools
• secondary schools.

Infant schools

The process for projecting pupil numbers for infant schools will have the following phases:

• phase 1: projecting pupil numbers in the reception classes
• phase 2: projecting pupil numbers in Years 1 and 2
• phase 3: decreasing the pupil population to take account of pupils leaving school at the end of Year 2.

To be accurate in its forecasting of pupil numbers, the authority will need to ensure that it:

• uses accurate population-based data for reception class projections: whether the authority has catchment areas for each of the infant schools or not, it is essential that data on the population of pre-school age children in the authority are accurate. If inward or outward migration of pupils is particularly high in areas where the infant schools are, birth data may prove to be inaccurate. See different sources of population-based data in phase 1.
• has been accurate in its previous projections: for the third year of a three-year projection for an infant school, the total projection for each school will consist entirely of projected pupil numbers as all the actual pupils will have left the school. It is essential, therefore, that the projection of reception-class numbers is accurate. See information on testing for validity in stages 3 and 4.
• takes account of parental preference data: this data can be taken into account when projecting numbers in reception classes in infant schools, or validating projections. See information on using preference data in phase 1.
• uses the right method for projecting pupil numbers for small schools: infant schools tend to be smaller in terms of pupil numbers as they only have three year groups. If the authority has identified that some projections for small schools are inaccurate, or have concerns over the accuracy of projections for specific infant schools, then it may need to consider using a different method for these schools. See information in phases 2 and 3 on schools warranting an individual approach to completing projections.
• uses the right method for projecting pupil numbers for faith schools: there may be a number of infant schools in the authority which are faith schools and have different procedures for admission, or extended catchment areas. The authority may need to use an individual method for projecting pupil numbers for these schools. See more information in phases 2 and 3 on schools warranting an individual approach to projections.
• makes adjustments, where necessary, to the projections of pupil numbers for popular schools: there may be a number of infant schools within the authority for which projections exceed PAN, or where projections indicate spare capacity, but the schools are usually full. In either of these cases, the authority may want to make adjustments to projections. See phases 2 and 3 for information on incorporating school capacity and planned admission numbers in infant school projections.
• takes account of schools undergoing reorganisation: there may a number of infant schools in the authority which are, for example, making changes to their capacity, catchment area or admission procedures. See phases 2 and 3 for information on ways of reflecting organisational changes in projections.
• takes account of staggered start dates for reception classes: for infant school projections, the authority also need to identify those of its infant schools which have has staggered start dates, and takes account of these in its projections. See phases 2 and 3 for information on ways of reflecting staggered start dates in reception class projections . In addition, some infant schools may also require projections of nursery class sizes. See phases 2 and 3 for more information on completing projections for nursery classes.
• takes account of pupil migration: for infant school projections, the authority will need to consider changes in cohort size from reception to Year 1 and Year 1 to Year 2. See further information on calculating cohort-survival rates. Changes in cohort sizes may also be a result of housing developments in the area. See phases 2 and 3 for more information on ways of taking account of housing developments in school-level projections.

See 'infant schools' to review examples of infant school projections.

Junior schools

The process for projecting pupil numbers for junior schools will have the following phases:

• phase 1: projecting pupil numbers in Year 3 (entry class)
• phase 2: projecting pupil numbers in Years 4, 5 and 6
• phase 3: decreasing the pupil population to take account of pupils leaving school at the end Year 6.

To be accurate in its forecasting of pupil numbers, the authority will need to ensure it:

• has accurate data for making projections of the number of Year-3 pupils: irrespective of whether or not the authority has catchment areas for each of the infant schools, or a system of feeder schools, it is essential that it has accurate data on the children transferring into each junior school. See information on different sources of population-based data in phase 1.
• has been accurate in its previous projections: for the third year of a three-year projection for an junior school, the total projection for each school will consist of projected pupil numbers for three of the four-year groups It is essential, therefore, that the projection of Year 3 numbers is accurate. See information on testing for validity in stages 3 and 4.
• has accurate data on pupil numbers for each of the feeder schools: it will need to complete projections for the infant schools that feed junior schools, prior to making projections for the junior schools themselves. See information on feeder schools in phase 1.
• takes account of parental preference data: preference data can be taken into account when forecasting the size of year-3 classes in junior schools, and validating projections. See information on using preference data in phase 1.
• uses the right method for projecting pupil numbers for small schools: junior schools tend to be comparatively small in terms of pupil numbers, as they only have four year groups. If the authority has identified that some projections for small schools are inaccurate, or have concerns over the accuracy of projections for specific junior schools, then it may need to consider using a different method for these schools. See phases 2 and 3 for information on schools warranting an individual approach to completing projections.
• uses the right method for projecting pupil numbers for faith schools: there may be a number of junior schools in the authority which are faith schools and have different procedures for admission, or extended catchment areas. The authority may need to use an individual method for projecting pupil numbers for these schools. See phases 2 and 3 for information on schools warranting an individual approach to projections.
• makes adjustments, where necessary, to the projections of pupil numbers for popular schools: there may be a number of junior schools within the authority for which projections exceed PAN, or where projections indicate spare capacity, but the schools are usually full. In either of these cases, the authority may want to make adjustments to projections. See phases 2 and 3 for information on incorporating school capacity and planned admission numbers in junior school projections.
• takes account of schools undergoing reorganisation: there may a number of junior schools in the authority which are, for example, making changes to their capacity, catchment area or admission procedures. See phases 2 and 3 for information on ways of reflecting organisational changes in projections.
• takes account of pupil migration: for junior school projections, the authority will need to consider changes in cohort size from Year 3 to Year 4, Year 4 to Year 5, and Year 5 to Year 6. In particular, there may be significant changes in cohorts if there are schools with different ages of transfer (e.g. middle schools) geographically close to the junior schools, either in the authority or in neighbouring authorities. See phases 2 and 3 for further information on calculating cohort-survival rates. Changes in cohort sizes may also be a result of housing developments in the area. See phases 2 and 3 for more information on ways of taking account of housing developments in school-level projections.

See 'junior schools' to review examples of junior school projections.

Primary schools

The process for projecting pupil numbers for primary schools will have the following phases:

• phase 1: projecting pupil numbers in the reception classes;
• phase 2: projecting pupil numbers in Years 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6; and
• phase 3: decreasing the pupil population to take account of pupils leaving school at the end of Year 6.

To forecast pupil numbers accurately, the authority will need to ensure that it:

• Has accurate population-based data for making projections of reception class numbers: irrespective of whether or not the authority has catchment areas for each of the primary schools, it is essential that it has accurate data on the population of pre-school age in the authority. If, however, inward and outward migration is particularly high in areas where the primary schools are, birth data may prove to be inaccurate. See phase 1 for information on different sources of population-based data.
• Has been accurate in its previous projections: in the case of medium-term projections, it is essential that those for reception pupils are correct, because these will form the basis of the year-group projections for each subsequent year. See stages 3 and 4 for information on testing for validity.
• Takes account of parental preference data: preference data can be taken into account when forecasting the size of reception classes in primary schools, and validating projections. See phase 1 for information on using preference data.
• Uses the right method for projecting pupil numbers for small schools: primary schools tend to be comparatively small in terms of pupil numbers, as they only have four year groups. If the authority has identified that some projections for small schools are inaccurate, or have concerns over the accuracy of projections for specific primary schools, then it may need to consider using a different method for these schools. See phases 2 and 3 for information on schools warranting an individual approach.
• Uses the right method for projecting pupil numbers for faith schools: there may be a number of primary schools in the authority which are faith schools and have different procedures for admission, or extended catchment areas. The authority may need to use an individual method for projecting pupil numbers for these schools. See phases 2 and 3 for information on schools warranting an individual approach to projections.
• Makes adjustments, where necessary, to the projections of pupil numbers for popular schools: there may be a number of primary schools within the authority for which projections exceed PAN, or where projections indicate spare capacity, but the schools are usually full. In either of these cases, the authority may want to make adjustments to projections. See phases 2 and 3 for information on incorporating school capacity and planned admission numbers in primary school projections.
• Takes account of schools undergoing reorganisation: there may a number of primary schools in the authority which are, for example, making changes to their capacity, catchment area or admission procedures. See phases 2 and 3 for information on ways of reflecting organisational changes in projections.
• Identifies and takes account of any of its primary schools that have staggered start dates for reception classes. See phases 2 and 3 for information on how to take staggered start dates into account in projections of reception class sizes. Some primary schools may also require projections of nursery class sizes. See phases 2 and 3 for information on how to make projections for nursery classes.
• Takes account of pupil migration: for primary school projections, the authority will need to consider changes in cohort size from Reception to Year 1, Year 1 to Year 2, Year 2 to Year 3, Year 3 to Year 4, Year 4 to Year 5, and Year 5 to Year 6. There may be significant changes in cohorts if there are schools with different ages of transfer (e.g. middle schools) geographically close to the primary schools, either in the authority or in neighbouring authorities. See phases 2 and 3 for further information on calculating cohort-survival rates. Changes in cohort sizes may also be a result of housing developments in the area. See phases 2 and 3 for more information on ways of taking account of housing developments in school-level projections.

See 'primary schools' to review examples of primary school projections　

First schools

The process for projecting pupil numbers will have the following phases:

• phase 1: projecting pupil numbers in the Reception classes;
• phase 2: projecting pupil numbers in Years 1, 2 and 3; and
• phase 3: decreasing the pupil population to take account of pupils leaving school at the end Year 3.

To forecast pupil numbers accurately, the authority will need to ensure that it:

• Has accurate population-based data for making projections of reception class numbers: irrespective of whether or not the authority has catchment areas for each of the first schools, it is essential that it has accurate data on the population of pre-school age in the authority. If, however, inward and outward migration is particularly high in areas where the primary schools are, birth data may prove to be inaccurate. See phase 1 for information on different sources of population-based data.
• Has been accurate in its previous projections: for the third year of a three-year projection for a first school, the total projection for each school will consist of projected pupil numbers for three of the four year groups. Therefore, it is essential that the projection for the reception class is accurate. See information on testing for validity in stages 3 and 4.
• Takes account of parental preference data: preference data can be taken into account when forecasting the size of reception classes in first schools, and validating projections. See phase 1 for information on using preference data.
• Uses the right method for projecting pupil numbers for small schools: first schools tend to be comparatively small in terms of pupil numbers, as they only have four year groups. If the authority has identified that some projections for small schools are inaccurate, or have concerns over the accuracy of projections for specific first schools, then it may need to consider using a different method for these schools. See phases 2 and 3 for information on schools warranting an individual approach to completing projections. Uses the right method for projecting pupil numbers for faith schools: there may be a number of primary schools in the authority which are faith schools and have different procedures for admission, or extended catchment areas. The authority may need to use an individual method for projecting pupil numbers for these schools. See phases 2 and 3 for information on schools warranting an individual approach to projections.
• Makes adjustments, where necessary, to the projections of pupil numbers for popular schools: there may be a number of first schools within the authority for which projections exceed PAN, or where projections indicate spare capacity, but the schools are usually full. In either of these cases, the authority may want to make adjustments to projections. See phases 2 and 3 for information on incorporating school capacity and planned admission numbers in first school projections.
• Takes account of schools undergoing reorganisation: there may a number of first schools in the authority which are, for example, making changes to their capacity, catchment area or admission procedures. See phases 2 and 3 for information on ways of reflecting organisational changes in projections.
• Identifies and takes account of any of its first schools that have staggered start dates for reception classes: see phases 2 and 3 for information on how to take staggered start dates into account in projections of reception class sizes. Some first schools may also require projections of nursery class sizes. See phases 2 and 3 for information on how to make projections for nursery classes.
• Takes account of pupil migration: for first school projections, the authority will need to consider changes in cohort size from Reception to Year 1, Year 1 to Year 2, and Year 2 to Year 3. There may be significant changes in cohorts if there are schools with different ages of transfer (e.g. junior schools) geographically close to the first schools, either in the authority or in neighbouring authorities. Changes in cohort sizes may be a result of housing developments in the area. See phases 2 and 3 for more information on ways of taking account of housing developments in school-level projections .

See 'middle schools' to review examples of first school projections.

Middle schools

The process for projecting pupil numbers will have the following phases:

• phase 1: projecting pupil numbers in Year 4 (entry class)
• phase 2: projecting pupil numbers in Years 5, 6 and 7 (or 8 depending on the organisation of the middle schools)
• phase 3: decreasing the pupil population to take account of pupils leaving school at the end Year 7 (or Year 8 depending on the organisation of the middle schools).

To forecast pupil numbers accurately, the authority will need to ensure that it:

• Has accurate data for making projections of year-4 numbers: irrespective of whether or not the authority has catchment areas for each of the middle schools, or has a system of feeder schools, it is essential that it has accurate data on the children transferring into each middle school. See phase 1 for information on different sources of population-based data.
• Has been accurate in its previous projections: for the third year of a three-year projection for a middle school, the total projection for each school will consist of projected pupil numbers for three of the four year groups. Therefore, it is essential that the projection for year-4 numbers is accurate. See information in stages 3 and 4 on testing for validity.
• Takes account of parental preference data: preference data can be taken into account when forecasting the size of Year 3 classes in middle schools, and validating projections. See phases 2 and 3 on using preference data.
• Uses the right method for projecting pupil numbers for small schools: middle schools tend to be comparatively small in terms of pupil numbers, as they only have four or five year groups. If the authority has identified that some projections for small schools are inaccurate, or have concerns over the accuracy of projections for specific middle schools, then it may need to consider using a different method for these schools. See information on schools warranting an individual approach in phases 2 and 3.
• Uses the right method for projecting pupil numbers for faith schools: there may be a number of middle schools in the authority which are faith schools and have different procedures for admission, or extended catchment areas. The authority may need to use an individual method for projecting pupil numbers for these schools. See information in phases 2 and 3 on schools warranting an individual approach to projections.
• Makes adjustments, where necessary, to the projections of pupil numbers for popular schools: there may be a number of middle schools within the authority for which projections exceed PAN, or where projections indicate spare capacity, but the schools are usually full. In either of these cases, the authority may want to make adjustments to projections. See information in phases 2 and 3 on incorporating school capacity and planned admission numbers in middle school projections.
• Takes account of schools undergoing reorganisation: there may a number of middle schools in the authority which are, for example, making changes to their capacity, catchment area or admission procedures. See phases 2 and 3 for information on ways of reflecting organisational changes in projections.
• Takes account of pupil migration: for middle school projections, the authority will need to consider changes in cohort size from 4 to Year 5, Year 5 to Year 6, Year 6 to Year 7, and. depending on the structure of the middle school, Year 7 to Year 8. There may be significant changes in cohorts if there are schools with different ages of transfer (e.g. secondary schools with year 7 as the entry year, rather than Year 8 or Year 9) geographically close to the middle schools, either in the authority or in neighbouring authorities. See information on calculating cohort-survival rates. Changes in cohort sizes may also be a result of housing developments in the area. See more information in phases 2 and 3 on ways of taking account of housing developments in school-level projections.

See 'middle school' to review examples of middle school projections.

Secondary schools

The process for projecting pupil numbers will have the following phases:

• phase 1: projecting pupil numbers in Year 7 (entry class);
• phase 2: projecting pupil numbers in Years 8, 9, 10 and 11; and
• phase 3: decreasing the pupil population to take account of pupils leaving school at the end Year 11.

To forecast pupil number accurately, the authority will need to ensure that it:

• Has accurate data for making projections of Year 7 numbers: irrespective of whether or not the authority has catchment areas for each of the secondary schools, or has a system of feeder schools, it is essential that it has accurate data on the children transferring to each secondary school in Year 7 (or Year 8 or 9 for some secondary schools in areas where there are middle schools). See phase 1 for information on different sources of population-based data.
• Has been accurate in its previous projections: it is essential that projections for Year 7 numbers are accurate as these will form the basis of the year group projections for each subsequent year. See information on testing for validity in stages 3 and 4.
• Has accurate information on numbers in feeder schools: some secondary schools have feeder primary, junior or middle schools and the authority must make sure it has accurate data on pupil numbers in these. The authority should complete projections for the feeder schools before making projections for the secondary schools. See phase 1 for information on feeder schools.
• Takes account of parental preference data: preference data can be taken into account when forecasting the size of Year 7 classes in secondary schools, and validating projections. See phases 2 and 3 for information on using preference data.
• Uses the most precise method for projecting pupil numbers for each school: there may be a number of secondary schools in the authority, such as city technology colleges, academies, selective grammar schools, or faith schools that have different procedures for admission or warrant extended catchment areas. The authority may need to use an individual method for projecting pupil numbers for these schools. See phases 2 and 3 for information on schools warranting an individual approach.
• Makes adjustments, where necessary, to the projections of pupil numbers for popular schools: there may be a number of middle schools within the authority for which projections exceed PAN, or where projections indicate spare capacity, but the schools are usually full. In either of these cases, the authority may want to make adjustments to projections. See phases 2 and 3 for information on incorporating school capacity and planned admission numbers in middle school projections.
• Takes account of schools undergoing reorganisation: there may a number of secondary schools in the authority which are, for example, making changes to their capacity, catchment area or admission procedures. See phases 2 and 3 for information on ways of reflecting organisational changes in projections.
• Considers whether it needs to make projections of sixth form pupil numbers for some or all the secondary schools in the authority. See information on how to make sixth form projections in phases 2 and 3.
• Takes account of pupil migration: for secondary school projections, the authority will need to consider changes in cohort size from Year 7 to Year 8, Year 8 to Year 9, Year 9 to Year 10, and. depending on the structure of the secondary school, Year 10 to Year 11. There may be significant changes in cohorts if there are schools with different ages of transfer (e.g. secondary schools with Year 8 or 9 as the entry year, rather than Year 7) geographically close to the middle schools, either in the authority or in neighbouring authorities. See information on calculating cohort-survival rates. Changes in cohort sizes may also be a result of housing developments in the area. See phases 2 and 3 for more information on ways of taking account of housing developments in school-level projections.

See 'secondary schools' to review examples of secondary school projections.