The guide aims to set out what needs to be done to ensure that projections of pupil numbers are reasonably accurate over a three-year period. It breaks the projection process down into its component core tasks namely:
- projecting reception class intakes;
- projecting year 11 numbers in order to calculate the potential number of school leavers;
- predicting pupil destinations at transfer years;
- rolling cohorts forward at school level;
- taking account of developments such as new housing and school reorganisations;
- validating the projections before finalising and reporting them; and
- testing the accuracy of previous projections in order to refine the projection methodology used.
For each of these core tasks the guide explains:
- the different options available;
- how each option can be implemented when making:
- an overall projection of pupil numbers across a whole authority;
- projection of pupil numbers for an individual school; and
- how readers could identify the most appropriate options for their local circumstances.
The guide intends to provide advice, rather than to be prescriptive. It recognises that no one option will solve all problems or fit all circumstances. The guide presents a variety of options for undertaking these core tasks and attempts to explain their respective "pros" and "cons". It also describes good practice in the projection of pupil numbers that was identified during the original research project for the Department in 2004/5.
